It’s that time again! While we wait out this frigid winter I like to pause and look back at the market we’ve just experienced—and share a few thoughts on what the coming year may bring. While I certainly can’t predict our real estate future, my 20+ years as a Realtor with Howard Hanna have given me a solid understanding of trends and the ability to offer informed guidance to my clients.
Our current job market is strong with overall growth in the healthcare, high-tech/semiconductors and government sectors. On the housing front, home values have climbed steadily for more than five years, and I don’t anticipate any meaningful downturn ahead. In 2025, the average sale price of a single‑family home reached $400,971, an 8.7% increase over the previous year. Continuing the trend of positive appreciation our region has experienced for approximately six to seven years, with a significant acceleration in growth beginning around the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (2019–2020). While appreciation was steadier prior to 2020, the market has seen sustained, often double-digit, percentage increases in home values and median sale prices through 2025.
There were 9,746 closed single‑family sales in 2025, slightly more than 2024 but significantly less than 2021's 13,485 sales. The primary reason for this drop is interest rates. In 2021, 30‑year mortgage rates hovered around 3%. Last year, they spent most of their time in the mid‑6% range. Understandably, many homeowners chose to stay put rather than trade a low rate for one that’s double. Adding to this is the rising cost of new construction. While prices across the board have increased, new builds have surged even more, with very few starting under $500,000.
So what might 2026 bring? In short, demand continues to exceed supply, and new housing starts remain well below pre‑COVID norms. Regulatory hurdles and the high cost of infrastructure—roads, water, sewer—will likely keep new construction constrained. Current new construction homes are taking 10-12 months or longer to close. Interest rates also aren’t expected to fall enough to motivate large numbers of homeowners to give up their existing low-rate mortgages.
And so it continues, unless something dramatic happens on a national or global scale, I don’t foresee a major drop in demand or a significant rise in inventory. That combination points to continued appreciation, though likely at a more moderate pace. After a 34% increase in average home values over the past five years, a gradual slowdown is both reasonable and healthy.
